The only way to figure out the future value of a biotech company is to figure out how much they might make off of their drugs in clinical trials if they get approved by the FDA. Today, I’ll take a look at the markets for two of Synta’s potential drugs: STA-4784 and Apilimod. If you need to get caught up, check out the rest of the posts in the Synta Pharmaceuticals stock evaluation category.

STA-4784

STA-4784 will start phase 3 clinical trials for melanoma, but it’s mechanism of action (stimulating the production of oxygen radicals) isn’t specific to melanomas; in theory the drug should work for many different cancer types and in combination with many different current cancer treatments. It certainly has the potential to be a blockbuster after they get additional label indications (which I believe requires additional clinical trials, but doctors can choose to prescribe it off label before that).

STA-4784’s biggest competition for melanoma treatment will be with dacarbazine/DTIC and interleukin 2, the only two drugs currently approved by the FDA. It will also have to compete with drugs that are used off label by dermatological oncologists to treat melanoma including cisplatin, temozolomide, vincristine, carmustine, and melphalan.

The patents for STA-4784 expire in 2022 (and possibly later if they can get cancer type specific patents), so, if it’s approved in 2009, they will have quite a large window of exclusivity before they need to compete with generics.

Aplimod

Aplimod is probably not in as good of a position to compete since there are quite a few imunosuppressant drugs available to treat chronic inflammatory diseases including injectable TNF alpha-antagonists (Remicade, Enbrel, and Humira) and broadly immunosuppressive small molecule agents including corticosteroids and azathioprine.

There are also two injectable anti-IL-12 antibody drugs (CNTO-1275 and ABT-874) currently in clinical trials, but, since Apilimod is taken orally, it has an advantage over those products in my opinion.

The patents for Aplimod run out in 2021, but FDA approval is at least a couple of years away, so this one might not have as many years of exclusivity as STA-4784.

I’m having a horrible time trying to figure out how much the drugs that they would compete against currently make.  I can’t seem to find the size of the markets anywhere. Does anyone have an idea of where I can find this information?

Filed under: Synta Pharmaceuticals (SNTA)